I do not claim to be an analyst or play one on TV, however, I am interested in what is happening in this space from a business perspective and when I try to get clean answers on the question I am asking I find it is not always  easy.   So my most recent query was to find out how many people or percentage of users  actually upgrade?  Or start using the new stuff when it comes out.  As a software developer you want the needle pinned at 100%, as a user, I admit that I still fire up programs that have the ’05’ in the title.  Yeah that’s a long winded intro, but this is what pulled from Autodesk and my interpretation of it.

Using Autodesk FY 2010 as a guideline.

Combined q1 and q2

Total Revenue – $841 Million

License and Other Revenue – $477

Maintenance – $ 366

Upgrade – $70 Million

On a percentage basis Maintenance Revenue is at 44%, Upgrade Revenue is roughly 8%.

So at any one time at least 50% of Autodesk’s installed base is either using or has the opportunity to use the latest software.  I say the opportunity to use because if you are on a maintenance program that includes the latest releases it is highly unlikely that every organization would upgrade the software every year.  Rather they made a decision that it costs less to be on the maintenance program and have the upgrade option even if they only do it every other year, etc.  So sell it once and turn 1/2 your user base into an annuity.

I also know Autodesk has a lot of interest in creating the software sales model into subscription only, making that figure 100%.  However, that sounds a lot like putting a lot of bees in a jar and shaking it.  Better make sure that lid stays put.