Archivo etiqueta Installed Seats
I do not claim to be an analyst or play one on TV, however, I am interested in what is happening in this space from a business perspective and when I try to get clean answers on the question I am asking I find it is not always easy. So my most recent query was to find out how many people or percentage of users actually upgrade? Or start using the new stuff when it comes out. As a software developer you want the needle pinned at 100%, as a user, I admit that I still fire up programs that have the ’05′ in the title. Yeah that’s a long winded intro, but this is what pulled from Autodesk and my interpretation of it.
Using Autodesk FY 2010 as a guideline.
Combined q1 and q2
Total Revenue – $841 Million
License and Other Revenue – $477
Maintenance – $ 366
Upgrade – $70 Million
On a percentage basis Maintenance Revenue is at 44%, Upgrade Revenue is roughly 8%.
So at any one time at least 50% of Autodesk’s installed base is either using or has the opportunity to use the latest software. I say the opportunity to use because if you are on a maintenance program that includes the latest releases it is highly unlikely that every organization would upgrade the software every year. Rather they made a decision that it costs less to be on the maintenance program and have the upgrade option even if they only do it every other year, etc. So sell it once and turn 1/2 your user base into an annuity.
I also know Autodesk has a lot of interest in creating the software sales model into subscription only, making that figure 100%. However, that sounds a lot like putting a lot of bees in a jar and shaking it. Better make sure that lid stays put.
I thought I’d share some numbers here since I find it difficult to find them openly out there on the interweb. I included a Market Share Pie Chart which appears to be from Gartner Research circa 2007. Using the 55% AutoCAD figure for the total market share and using the AutoCAD installed base via 2008 of 4,162,000, which is right from an Autodesk Press release, we then can approximate the total installed seats for CAD (2D, 3D, BIM) to be around 7,567,273. However, this figure could be derived by revenue which will distort the total installed seats figure.
If we assume that 7,567,723 figure is correct, as well as the 7% figure for Revit provided by Gartner we get installed seats of Revit to be 530,000, give or take. That seems kind of close to the back of the envelope estimates I was coming up with by getting published accounts of installed Revit seats to be around 400,000 end of 2008, and they were selling new seats of Revit at around 20,000 per quarter, would have them around 480,000+ by the end of this year 2009. If installed seats of Revit have not surpassed the installed seats of AutoCAD Architecture, previously Architectural Desktop, it has to be getting close, as of 2008 there was an installed base of ADT/ACA of 503,000.
Using the report as a guideline they had BIM growth at approximately 12%, if Revit is adding seats at approximately 20,000 per quarter that is a 15% gain from FY 2009. In 2008 they had an increase in revenue from Revit from the previous year of 23%, which could be attributed to sales of subscriptions and on going maintenance contracts above and beyond the 15% I came up with here.
Another interesting fact is that as a percentage of revenue 3D Products and AutoCAD itself were getting very close to parity, with AutoCAD and AutoCADLT at 32% and 3D Products at 30%. I am not privy to how they break out all the figures but Civil 3D, Navisworks and Revit are all thrown into that bucket. So 3D solutions has gone from 23% of FY 2008 revenue to 27% of FY 2009 revenue to 30% at the Q2 FY 2010 watermark.
Some other information I found in an article at Architosh, and I have posted some of it here.
Revenue and Growth
According to JPR’s research, CAD software vendors saw combined revenues of $5.2 billion (USD) in 2007 globally. The CAD software market grew by an astounding 20% in 2007 compared to 2006. Despite a very poor US economy and the threat of US recession, the CAD industry will continue its positive economic trend and will grow to over $6 billion (USD) in 2008. Looking out five years the global CAD software market will reach and exceed $8.2 billion (USD).
2D and 3D
In 2007 the worldwide installed base of CAD users reached 5.31 million. In 2007 the majority of CAD users (63%) are still working in 2D, while 37% work in 3D. However, revenues for 3D CAD surpassed 2D CAD taking 53% of the market. This trend will continue but JPR makes note that not all 2D CAD users will make a transition to 3D CAD.
The article was based on the research from Jon Peddie Research.
To look at the 2007 figure of installed seats as reported by Jon Peddie, of 5.3 Million and a 15% Growth Rate we would get approximately 6.09 Million Users in 2008 and 7.00 Million in 2009.
Hope this was helpful for those of you at their searching for this stuff, and if you weren’t I don’t know how you got here and why you’re still reading.
Autodesk released its fiscal 2009 annual report and I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at the numbers. First, and most importantly to me is the growth within in their AEC segment. This segment in general posted a revenue gain of 9%, whereas the Revit family or products produced a revenue gain of 22% compared to itself in 2008. I could boldly state that this is proof positive of Revit’s market acceptance, however, this is also an easy to mask would could be lousy performance. For example, if I sold one box of cookies last year, and this y I sold two, voila 100% gain. By seeing the actual numbers you are more likely to come to the conclusion that I am lousy cookie salesman, and this does not necessarily reflect on the product at all.
When looking at revenue by Geography, Revit posted a 40% Revenue gain compared to 2007, and compared to the AEC segment of 26% as a whole. Again comparing it to itself does not shed a ton of light on the subject accept for the fact that Revit is accelerating.
If we look at this on a macro level, anyway you look at it, this is positive. Autodesk could be discounting products in order to maintain top line growth. Do I care? No, since I do not own Autodesk as a stock holder, but am very invested in it as a user/developer. So while a shareholder might be more interested in margins, I’m more about top line growth and adoption, so the fact that Revit is posting better revenue gains compared to the rest of the segment, I’m happy.
Strategically, I like the fact that Autodesk has almost $1 billion cash on hand in cash and cash equivalents, and that they have no problem making acquisitions of companies in their target zone. What’s their target zone? The way I look at it, imagine a building from conception to destruction and everything in between. If you carve out a space in there you are in their target zone. Interestingly they dropped FM Desktop which leaves a gap in their portfolio. The fact they picked up Navisworks, Constructware, Ecotect, etc. shows they are serious in owning this space and that they do not want you to have to leave their product of families to do your work. Hello Microsoft. How this plays with their commitment to IPD and cross platform compatibility will be interesting. IPD is too big a deal to pay lip service too so I imagine they play along, continuing to create value within the BIM and IPD space, and acquiring companies who provide value added tools.
And if you are a Revit user, or thinking about switching over, signs look good that Autodesk has your back. FYI Gartner Research reported in 2007 a 12% growth rate for BIM and Revit is beating those estimates. If I get a bit more motivated I will try and break out Revit revenue from the AEC segement, breakout the % revnue from subscription and divide by average single seat license or average seat license and see if we can get to an installed base #, last time I tried something, and this was very unsicentific I had it around 300,000+. I’ll follow this post up if I get some more cofee in me and can get excited to go through the annual report, 10K’s etc. in more detail.