Archive for category Autodesk

CAD Market / BIM Market 2010 : Installed Base : Ouch.

So earlier in these ruminations I stated that I thought 30% less was the new watermark, that is, 30% less work out there, 30% off what used to be a winning bid.  Early market data from Jon Peddie Research, shows a  22% drop in 2009 CAD revenues as compared to 2010.  This is just on the software side, not services, which we can argue would be worse. Subscriptions are down because why renew an empty seat as are new sales.  This report deals with CAD on all levels from designing parts to designing buildings but still gives a good overview of the industry.  The good news for those embracing BIM is that they reaffirm other anecdotal information that BIM is a bottom up phenomena not a mandate from management. That is, the people building the buildings are the ones who are using not because of perceived value or marketing spin but because it adds value.  Hammer..check…Compressor…check…BIM model…

CAD Market Share

Updated Aug 2010

I noticed a lot of traffic to this page, and also noticed that the link to the report required a log in so decided to quote it here.

Let’s just get this over with: the year 2009 was a disaster in the CAD industry. According to our latest report, the CAD industry saw revenues of $5.1 billion, a 22% drop compared to 2008 and although the picture is improving for 2010, there is no rebound because that’s just not the way the CAD industry works, and worse, that’s not how this recession worked.

The CAD industry cannot turn on a dime because it’s part of larger systems. At this year’s Autodesk University, Carl Bass noted that subscriptions were down because there’s not much reason to maintain a subscription for empty seats. Unfortunately, there are a lot of empty seats for all CAD systems worldwide. We estimate that approximately 200,000 workers left the CAD industry worldwide. And, it can be added, we believe this is a conservative view.

In this latest report we have seen an interesting trend as Building Information Modeling (BIM) becomes accepted in the engineering, architecture and construction (AEC) industry. The similar discipline, PLM is just about ubiquitous in MCAD but as it was being introduced into the MCAD industry in the early 90s, it was essentially implemented in a top-down process as management signed up for the advantages that come with a consistent and connected data pipeline. In contrast, BIM in the architectural fields is being driven by those at the end of the pipeline in building and construction.

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Sketch Up Goes BIM : #sketchup #bim

If you still look at sketch up as a designer tool, and scoff at its less than robust ‘data’, start rethinking.  The fact is google has an open app, and google is taking over the world, and they want ‘their’ data to go across as many platforms as possible and delivered to you in anyway possible.  So it is no surprise that more robust plug-ins are being offered.

Recently ecoscore card, annouunced:

…a technology platform that helps building product specifiers evaluate environmental attributes of products, today revealed the new ecoScorecard plug-in that works with Google SketchUp and provides a critical link between popular BIM (Building Information Modeling) tools and important environmental rating systems such as LEED…

There will be more.  Autodesk watch your back, BIM users rejoice

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Autodesk: User Upgrades : How many people actually do it : #BIM

I do not claim to be an analyst or play one on TV, however, I am interested in what is happening in this space from a business perspective and when I try to get clean answers on the question I am asking I find it is not always  easy.   So my most recent query was to find out how many people or percentage of users  actually upgrade?  Or start using the new stuff when it comes out.  As a software developer you want the needle pinned at 100%, as a user, I admit that I still fire up programs that have the ’05’ in the title.  Yeah that’s a long winded intro, but this is what pulled from Autodesk and my interpretation of it.

Using Autodesk FY 2010 as a guideline.

Combined q1 and q2

Total Revenue – $841 Million

License and Other Revenue – $477

Maintenance – $ 366

Upgrade – $70 Million

On a percentage basis Maintenance Revenue is at 44%, Upgrade Revenue is roughly 8%.

So at any one time at least 50% of Autodesk’s installed base is either using or has the opportunity to use the latest software.  I say the opportunity to use because if you are on a maintenance program that includes the latest releases it is highly unlikely that every organization would upgrade the software every year.  Rather they made a decision that it costs less to be on the maintenance program and have the upgrade option even if they only do it every other year, etc.  So sell it once and turn 1/2 your user base into an annuity.

I also know Autodesk has a lot of interest in creating the software sales model into subscription only, making that figure 100%.  However, that sounds a lot like putting a lot of bees in a jar and shaking it.  Better make sure that lid stays put.

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